Well, the long politically painful and embarrassingly expensive Democratic Party primary has finally ended. Sen. Barack Obama has been declared the winner and Sen. Hillary Clinton the loser. And from even a distant viewing of the primary, one could easily state that, long before his win, he was 'chosen' as the winner to be by his own party and a overtly enthusiastic press that seemed to be openly leaning in his direction.

Therefore, it should be relatively safe to conclude with some confidence, that Sen. Obama will be pitted against the Republican Party candidate, Sen. John McCain in November of 2008. It will be an historic presidential election; one that the political pundits are already predicting will be a landslide runaway win for Obama. Or - if pundit prediction is allowed to be infected with an outsider viewpoint - will it?

America's political pundits and historians, with lean exception, have continually failed to gauge the 'citizen climate' of this country. I state this with particular reference to this most unusual election season, when drastic fluctuations of economic forces, extreme challenges to longstanding norms of social conformity, and daily security fears have comedown very hard on the life of the average Middle Class citizen.

Instead these entrenched forces of the press and televised journalism have relied upon jealously guarded internal feedback from their own tight inner circle of colleagues who, with only slight variation, reflect their own opinions and preconceptions.

These 'news-professional' viewpoints are garnered and artificially bolstered by polls of questionable validity and accuracy, and the 'newsperson lived' experiences of past elections. These elements have been assembled by the fourth estate, with the sole intent of being able to craft a roadmap by which they can gauge the coming election. Their end purpose - prediction of likely outcomes. But if notable indications have any impact on their efforts, what they appeared to have accomplished with this primary season is to come up with a system that is far less accurate than the infamous 'exit poll.' And the reason for this shortfall, in my humble opinion at least, is that they have completely closed off any meaningful input from the - voting public.

Big mistake, ladies and gentlemen of the press and televised journalism, big mistake!

Voter Anger Front and Center

Have no doubt about it, this past primary season was intended to be - the year of the woman. And for all intents and purposes, that woman was intended to be Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. The older female population of the country and the candidate herself had planned long and hard for the advent of the first American woman president. It was a given; nothing could go wrong - but it did.

Virtually out of nowhere, an unexpected and politically inexperienced candidate entered the field - and he was Black. Barack Obama made his unexpected entrance into the presidential primary and the Democratic Party was faced with a quandary: they had two prime historic choices on their hands; a first Female and a first Black as presidential candidates. What were they to do?

At this point the rapidly rising Neo-Liberal element of the Democratic Party, the 'Pelosi Faction', made a choice. They decided that they could accomplish far more of their ultra liberal agenda with a 'Far Left' leaning Barack Obama, then they ever could with a decidedly 'Centrist' Hillary Clinton.'

So they threw the might of party support toward Obama, and hung Hillary out to dry. And it was at this point, without ever realizing what they were doing, they ignited a small but ever growing flame in the hearts of older working class American woman; Hillary fever took root and the Democratic party began to split - seriously.

Still there are those who want a particular outcome so badly, they will allow their senses of proportion to be dulled, and their appetites for victory to be sated by Ivory Tower professionals. The following is an excerpt from an article in The San Francisco Chronicle:

McCain's Support Among GOP Women Shows Cracks

June 19, 2008

by: Carla Marinucci, The San Francisco Chronicle

Much attention has focused in recent weeks on the discontent of leading Democratic women who supported Clinton, including Susie Tompkins Buell - one of the Democratic Party's most generous and influential donors. The San Francisco-based entrepreneur has warned that many of Clinton's female supporters are absolutely not ready to support Obama, the party's presumed presidential nominee.

Buell has led a vocal group of women behind a political action committee called Women Count ( www.womencountpac.com), which plans a new campaign of full-page newspaper ads to address what she calls lingering concern regarding the party's disengagement with older women during and after Clinton's historic race as the first major female candidate for president.

Such efforts underscore how women are considered the must-have vote in the contest between McCain and Obama, said Barbara O'Connor, professor of political communication at Cal State Sacramento, "especially in a close election, because there are more of them, and they vote more regularly."

O'Connor said the disappointment of Clinton Democratic women is understandable - but unlikely to last for long.

Baby Boomer women "wanted to vote for a woman as president before they died," she said. But "when they calm down, they'll take a look at McCain's position on choice, on drilling the California coast ... and I can't believe these Democratic women activists will entrust their future to John McCain.

 "While McCain is refreshing compared to his peers, and a solid citizen on his values ... he's really a Republican in his heart on social issues. And that's going to drive the average soccer mom around the bend," O'Connor said.

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Most individuals with their eyes open will see all of this rhetoric as 'wishful thinking', consisting of more wish than actual thinking. Once again we have the prognostications of the likes of Professor Barbara O'Connor, the university based political professional with no resume of successful past predictions: in fact - not even close.

These individuals, like it or not, are deliberately overlooking the Hillary Factor, namely - middle to lower income White Women.

Let's Take a Hard Look at the Real World

As much as I admire and respect Sen. John McCain for his Vietnam wartime duty and incredible suffering in behalf of our country, I would be the last to deny that as a potential president, the man is a dinosaur. There's simply no other way to put it!

One would almost think the man was trying to lose the election. But despite all of his gaffs, up until two weeks before the date of this editorial, he was running virtually neck and neck in the polls with Obama.  And it is critical to note that, as of the date of this editorial, he is dead even with Obama in polls of the important Independent voters. Think long and hard about that status, for even the pundits are stumped and at a loss to explain the inexplicable. I however have my own theory.

McCain appears to be for everything that Middle Class America hates: strict Right Wing Supreme Court justices, the reversal of the Wade vs. Roe abortion decision, an extended occupation in Iraq beyond the five years and more than 4100 American lives we've already forfeited. And if that wasn't enough, during his primary campaign he decided to mimic the old 1960's Beach Boys classic tune, "Barbara Ann", with a little ditty of his own: "...Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran!"

One would almost think the man was trying to lose the election, but despite all of his gaffs, up until two weeks before the date of this editorial, he was running virtually neck and neck in the polls with Obama. Think long and hard about that status, even the pundits are stumped. I however have my own theory.

Is the United States of America ready for its first Black president? That question remains up in the air on Obama's 'blackness' as well as McCain's age. Both factors are spelled out in this excerpt from a Washington Post editorial:

3 in 10 Americans Admit to Race Bias


Survey Shows Age, Too, May Affect Election Views

By Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, June 21, 2008;

More than six in 10 African Americans now rate race relations as "not so good" or "poor," while 53 percent of whites hold more positive views. Opinions are also divided along racial lines, though less so, on whether blacks face discrimination. There is more similarity on feelings of personal racial prejudice: Thirty percent of whites and 34 percent of blacks admit such sentiments.

At the same time, there is an overwhelming public openness to the idea of electing an African American to the presidency. In a Post-ABC News poll last month, nearly nine in 10 whites said they would be comfortable with a black president. While fewer whites, about two-thirds, said they would be "entirely comfortable" with it, that was more than double the percentage of all adults who said they would be so at ease with someone entering office for the first time at age 72, which McCain (R-Ariz.) would do should he prevail in November.

Even so, just over half of whites in the new poll called Obama a "risky" choice for the White House, while two-thirds said McCain is a "safe" pick. Forty-three percent of whites said Obama has sufficient experience to serve effectively as president, and about two in 10 worry he would overrepresent the interests of African Americans.

Obama will be forced to confront these views as he seeks to broaden his appeal. He leads in the Post-ABC poll by six percentage points among all adults, but among those who are most likely to vote, the contest is a tossup, with McCain at 48 percent and Obama at 47 percent

The Black Factor

The very fact that Hillary Clinton came in with such a strong showing among older Working Class Whites and particularly among older White Women addresses this fact. As I see it, no matter what Obama does, a solid 33 percent - minimum - will not vote for him. It is not completely a matter of racism but more for many a matter of social discomfort among this group.

On this point I am more than willing to accept the possibility that I may be dead wrong, but I really don't think that I am. There is far too much evidence out there to bolster my conclusions.

Secondly, everywhere I go, and I mean everywhere - not just in New Hampshire, I continue to see Hillary campaign banners and placards, defiantly still in place, on lawns, home fronts and of recent on a growing number of websites. And more than anything, I hear the talk among women in restaurants and coffee shops and on the streets. There is a strong and potent element out there - 'who want to get even.' Again, maybe I over estimate their potential. I could be wrong!

Finally, it should be remembered by all that the 'youth element' among voters has always been highly unreliable: they appear to have a short attention span. They come out in droves in primaries, but have shown a consistent reluctance to follow up during the actual election. John F. Kennedy's near loss to Richard Nixon after massive primary support from this faction, and Eugene McCarthy's defeat are concrete proof of this youth fallibility.

Everything in this coming election will hang on the independent vote among the Middle Class for, contrary to the voting faction between the ages of 18-27, the middle age and senior crowd always come out to vote - rain or shine. And it is critical to note that they usually vote out of fear of something, rather than enthusiasm for a particular candidate: it's their long held trademark.

It is also important to keep in mind that the entire election can swing dramatically on, what if anything, the retreating Bush administration does in the Middle East just before they make their final exit. Yes, they have the time, available funds and determination to leave an even deadlier legacy for the next administration - beyond the mess they have already accomplished.

Therefore, like the weather, the final election is unpredictable. And when the pundits and university intellectuals make predictions of good weather, I suggest that we should all prepare to carry our umbrellas to work.

What the End May Bring About

As I've stated many times before and will repeat once again, I don't shoot craps and I do not make predictions. But try as they may to convince their reading and viewing audience, in truth, my journalistic colleagues cannot state with certainty what result will await us on the morning of November 5, 2008.

Remember, the predecessors of these same groups predicted - in a sure win - the highly popular New York State Gov. Dewey would defeat Harry Truman for president in 1948. Harry Truman was the incumbent only because of the death of FDR, and he ran his election from the back of a train in the now famous 'whistle stop' campaign. Like McCain, he too had little money to employ over a more popular and better-financed adversary.

For those of you too young to remember, Harry Truman, a simple uninspiring non-charismatic farm boy from Missouri, who thought in simple terms and failed at every business enterprise he'd ever attempted on November 3, 1948 - won!

Your comments - The voices of our readers

G.W.'s response proves your point."Your own people"? G.W. is a racist S.O.B. "My people" are my fellow Americans without prejudice. Those who see things as they are, regardless of race, color or creed. Zebra, Manchester, NH We CAN get out of this (Iraq) war. Just follow what was done to Yugoslavia in the ninties. Let us face it: this is a civil war. If ethnic diversisties can't/won't live together than encourage the parties to divide into 3 regions: the Sunni, Shiite and Kurds. At least allow them have a go at it for several decades. They'll realise they need one another - but a realisation by themselves ! Norma P, Atlanta, GA I agree with you McBush is our boy. Remember vhe will preserve the billions of dollars Dubya and I have stolen from the citizens of the United States. My Haliburton Oil Company, which we moved to Dubai, only receives a billion dollars a month for it's Irqai pipeline. That is not enough. And Dubya's Blackwatch family doesn't even received that much money. Remember now drill and kill for oil off the coast. Alternative fuels never, the oil comany's pay us for not having them. Just like they did back in the 70's. Remember vote for McBush, this country doesn't need a change. Me and Dubya need more money for out retirement. Thank you for listening. Dubai Cheney, Crawford, TX Love the website, great inclusion of latest newswith thought provoking editorials. As one of those conservative independents, glad to have seen the positive, yet accurate, outline of the method to our thought processes and to see it in action related to the politics of the coming election. Way to go Allen and keep writing! Deb, NH You really are a m......f.... to your own people. Man don't you have any shame? Trust me brother you are gonna get yours. G.W, Washington Heights, NY