Genesis
"Oh what a tangled web we weave, when at first we practice to deceive."
Sir Walter Scott (1771-1832)
During early meetings of the Zionist Congress, some elements had recommended Argentina as a homeland for a Jewish State. Later on the British would suggest Uganda as possible location. Unfortunately, fanatics within their organization insisted that location be Palestine, which they considered to be their true biblical home from which the Egyptians had expelled them in 1230 BC.
Unfortunately again, the fanatics won the day, and convinced their people to return to the land of their forefathers, to continue a battle that had taken place almost 2000 years previous. And that is exactly what they did by a slow but deliberate and determined immigration.
By 1946 a steadily growing onslaught of Jewish refugees from war torn Europe affected a major resident minority foothold in Palestine, in direct opposition to the majority Arab population in residence there for centuries. Meanwhile, the British government who held a shaky military and political control of the territory, did everything in their power to restrict what they saw as an eventually troublesome Jewish immigration. In retaliation, Jewish terrorist militias targeted the British forces and government there as enemies of their people.
In 1948, war broke out between the Jewish factions and the surrounding Arab states. The end result of the conflict was the 'surgical' creation of the State of Israel, and the fabrication of the myth that the Exodus of Palestinian Arabs from the new state - before the war - was of their own volition.
As the story goes, they voluntarily retreated in answer to the attacking Arab states call for them to do so until they'd defeated the Jews. That story was, of course, one of deceit and in essence absolute rubbish. The radical factions of the Zionist movement (The Stern Gang and the Haganah) herded them out so as to guarantee a majority Jewish occupied state.
Ironically, Israel was assisted along its path to statehood by the violent terrorist campaign of a group known as the Irgun. One Menachem Begin who, even after his death in 1992, is still on the wanted lists of two countries led them. Begin assisted in the 1946 destruction of the King David Hotel in Jerusalem, with the resultant loss of 73 British, Jewish and Arab lives. In 1977 Begin would be elected Prime Minister of Israel and would wage a continued war on PLO leader Yasser Arafat, who he referred to as a 'terrorist'. His own past terrorist activities he would refer to as those of a 'patriot.'
At the end of what was to be the first of many conflicts in the area in the 20th century, for all of the right reasons (and simultaneously, all of the wrong reasons), in 1948 President Truman chose to convey United States recognition upon the State of Israel. From there the world went from the 'Wandering Jew' to the 'Wandering Palestinian.'
Needless to say, the Palestinians immediately began their bloody trek to retake the homeland of their forefathers. And as the title of the old 1960's song states so eloquently, "The Beat Goes On." Rightfully, this continuing chaotic and barbaric affair should be referred to as The Dance Macabre of the Middle East.
The Failure of American Foreign Policy
In the annals of history, the United States has in place a most unique and highly questionable foreign policy. The gist of it is; we solemnly refuse to speak directly with leader, state or group we don't like, or whose actions state wise, internally or externally, or both we disapprove of. One would have thought the late President Richard M. Nixon had put an end to such policies, when he recognized and traveled to China. The thinking being, how can we not recognize over a billion people whose country possessed nuclear weapons?
Apparently, the Bush administration doesn't buy that idea. They steadfastly refuse to recognize or negotiate, one on one, with North Korea and Iran: one has a nuclear capability and the other is moving rapidly to achieve the same status. How can we not speak with them?
Instead, we chose a policy whereby we speak through second or third party surrogates. The process is sort of like being the loudest voice shouting diplomacy from a darkened place at the back of the room. The policy makes no sense. Not only does it not achieve any of the administration's pledged objectives or goals, but it angers the very people we wish to communicate with, urging them to become even more intransigent: in this case, Iran, Syria and North Korea.
Chaos Theory and the George W. Bush Presidency
The Middle East has existed in a state of chaos for so long, a secondary state of equilibrium had developed: Chaos Theory supports such co-existence of two seemingly diverse states for inanimate objects in space. But the theory can be applied equally to warring political and religious systems, geographically positioned in close proximity, where the conflict lasts long enough. And the theory also makes it clear that the state is open to change from random outside forces. What the theory does not address with any degree of predictability is change brought about by deliberate outside interference.
As any fledgling first year student of the science of physics knows, when an 'Immoveable' object is struck by an 'Irresistible' force, they exchange states: the immovable object becomes the 'Irresistible' force and vice versa.
America has now become the 'Immovable' object (politically speaking) locked in a failed foreign policy, and the so-called rogue Arab states have become the 'Irresistible' force. These Arab states have managed to develop effective surrogate fighting armies, organizationally and functionally, very much reminiscent of the famed former French Foreign Legion of decades past.
By unnecessarily attacking and invading Iraq, then precipitously announcing that we would come to Israel's defense if she were attacked (a diplomatic blunder all previous American presidents have studiously avoided), President George W. Bush has painted the United States into a corner, militarily and diplomatically In essence, we are now locked into a centuries old conflict that we can't easily extricate ourselves, and at the same time, have very little if any credibility with the combatants - which we refuse to speak with directly, one on one, in any case...
The New Palestinian State Under Construction
Anyone who harbors the belief that Lebanon will survive this latest 'holocaust from the sky' as a country, with a Lebanese identity, is only fooling himself or herself. With this new Arab-Israeli conflict that identity is slowly burning away to ashes. The name Lebanon may remain on the maps to mark that geographical land area and state but, like the fabled Atlantis, Lebanon as an actual cultural-political entity, will be gone. What will effectively replace it will be the northern end of the New Palestinian State, with Gaza as its southern end. Between the two, teasingly, will be the coveted prize - Israel.
The Political Backlash of Democracy Misapplied
The Bush administration in its never-ending Christian push to establish American style democracy all over the world pressured the Palestinians and the Lebanese to establish such a government via the elective process. So they did. The administration also garnered UN and international pressure on Syria to give up its decades long military occupation of Lebanon, and they did.
The net result of the intervention was that the Palestinians of Gaza, freely and enthusiastically, employed the democratic process to elect Hamas. Meanwhile, via the democratic process, the Lebanese allowed a big chunk of their government to go to Hezbollah. And without the Syrians in attendance to control them, Hezbollah decided to take on the Israelis. Now what does the west do?
Who and What is Hezbollah?
Hezbollah (in Arabic - The Party of God) was funded and formed by Iran in 1982 to fight Israeli occupation in southern in Lebanon. The organization is lead by the charismatic and university educated Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, under whose leadership the group was converted from a paramilitary group into a powerful co-political entity. It is the main political party and military wing supporting the Shia community, the largest religious bloc in Lebanon.
The group follows a strict Shia Islamic ideology developed by the Ayatollah Khomeini, leader of the Islamic revolution in Iran. Many in the Arabic world regard Hezbollah as the religious rebirth of Yassar Arafat's PLO, without the political corruption and nepotism rampant in that group.
Hezbollah distributes welfare to their people, operates hospitals and homes for orphan children, provide pensions for the families of members killed or seriously wounded in combat, and is funded by both Iran and Syria. Both governments (who deny supplying them with weapons) have openly proclaimed that they regard Hezbollah as a legitimate resistance; a view held by the majority of the Muslim and Arabic world, who do not regard them as terrorists as they do Al Queda.
In their last confrontation with Israel in Lebanon, as well as the present one, they have proved themselves to be a well disciplined, militarily proficient fighting force, capable of long-term strategic planning. Unlike with the former PLO, the Israelis have learned not to take them for granted. Their immediate goal in the present Lebanon conflict, appears to be the release of some of the 8700 men, women and children held in Israeli prisons, via a prisoner exchange of captured Israeli soldiers.
Why This Irrational and Untimely Border War Now?
The big question at this time of sudden increased hostility in this area of the world begs the question -why now? The answer is simply this was no war of chance or misappropriated opportunity. The present air war campaign (and that's what it is) was thought out and meticulously planned for at least 18 months in advance of the actual beginning of hostilities. How else could Hezbollah manage to stockpile and effectively hide an estimated 16,000 to 18,000 missiles? This Israel/Hezbollah war was deliberately initiated by Syria and specifically, Iran; and there was method and long-term purpose to their seeming madness.
Before the officially recognized start of World War II, Germany tested its new weapons systems in Spain during their civil war. It would appear that Iran has taken a page from history and is now accomplishing the same objective in Lebanon.
The Iranians, with technical assistance from the North Koreans, have developed an arsenal of powerful, mobile, surface-to-surface missiles capable of mid to long-range flights. This capability, however, means nothing unless you can test their guidance systems. Through Hezbollah, that is exactly what the Iranians are now doing in Lebanon, and the west and the Israelis are undergoing a demonstration of just how effective the Iranian missile capability is. What we are now witnessing is the end of the vaunted Israeli air superiority.
Iran and Syria are now engaged in an air war with Israel, in which they don't have to employ or chance losing any aircraft or their pilots. And for the first time, they have been able to carry their attacks, effectively, to Israeli warships off their coasts. This is a major development for the Arab nations, long at the devastating mercy of the superior Israeli air force.
Also, need we not overlook the fact that a 'terrorist' faction, Hezbollah, from Lebanon, has managed to rain terror from the skies down upon Israel over long distances, for over a week, and sustain the attacks despite the constant night and day pounding of their positions by Israeli artillery and over whelming air power.
In the 1973 Yom Kipper War, the widely accepted view of Israeli military invincibility was shattered: the late Egyptian leader, Anwar Sadat, put that myth to rest for all time. His brilliant and successful strategic planning and surprise assault proved that Israel could be outmaneuvered and, to a frightening degree, defeated in combat - if only their air force could be temporarily neutered. The Russian supplied SAM - 3 (surface-to-air missiles) did exactly that and, had the Egyptians not made one critical error, by Israeli military admission they might have won that war.
Now once again an Arab power, Hezbollah, has demonstrated that they can wage a sustained war against an established overwhelming military force, with deadly effectiveness. They have managed to bring their fight directly to Israeli cities without leaving their home base. The military equation of the Middle East has now been changed dramatically and forever.
The Looming Dragon of Armageddon
Border to border, it is about 988-990 miles from Israel to Iran. Israel may have used up all of their 'one time only' long range attack maneuvers on Entebbe and the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak. Their enemies have seen, understood and studied their vulnerabilities to such 'midnight' attacks, and they have planned for such an eventuality. It is highly unlikely they will allow themselves to be caught with their pants down again.
Most importantly, however, they know they can carry on a long-range war of attrition with Israel, which the Israelis know they can't afford to undergo or sustain. Therefore, they too are examining options for a worse case scenario, and this brings us closer to the brink of a disaster that hinges on three possibilities that may become hardened factors:
(1) At present, the Israelis are the most powerful military force in the Middle East due to their nuclear capability. Clearly, from their generally paranoid survival point of view, they cannot allow the Iranians to gain parity in this area. The Iranians, however, despite world condemnation are rapidly approaching just such a capability.
(2) Once Iran has achieved nuclear capability, they become from a military and economic standpoint, virtually, the 'United States' of the Middle East. They will have control of all of the influence and power in the Arab world.
(3) The only way for Israel to stunt the development of an Iranian nuclear capability may be a series of low yield nuclear attacks on their facilities. Needless to say, such an attack would change everything, politically and militarily in the world, and would come when we in the United States have no proven effective leadership.
Truly, The Dance Macabre of the Middle East is a deadly one, whose music we may all have to dance to - eventually. |