The most incredible attribute of the future is that, although it can't be predicted, it can be controlled. Yes, humankind can do this even though we don't know what the future will be. We control the future by looking forward with an unprejudiced preparative state of mind, instead of looking back with a wish list of what should have been done. In other words we have the option to choose between being continual Creatures of Chaos and moving toward Enlightened Future Planning.
The Birth of Science Fiction
Who wrote the first Science Fiction tale? Many say that credit goes to Jules Verne, but all Verne gave Science Fiction was substantive existence. It was not until the coming of Hugo Gernsback (1884-1967) did this form of futuristic outlook take root - if not contemptuously within the annals of American literature. Gernsback was an entrepreneur and technical visionary, whose interest in things electrical initiated the birth of Science Fiction.
In 1905 Gernsback founded the Electric Importing Company, became the editor of Modern Electrics in 1908, and founder of a radio station (WRNY) in 1925. But as early as 1911, Gernsback took on the pseudonym of Ralph 124C 41+ to edit and author early technology and speculative publications, such as "Radio Craft", "Short Wave Craft" and "Sexology."
The man was a dreamer and inventor who envisioned plastics, stainless steel, tape recorders, solar power collectors and television. Often however, his early scientific efforts would go awry. One such attempt was a contrivance called the 'Osophone', which was supposed to allow the deaf to hear through their teeth. Despite these setbacks, at the time of his death he'd amassed a total of 80 patents.
Gernsback's most important contribution to this new writing form was to place it on firm literary ground. He accomplished this feat by establishing a following for it in the pulp magazines of the period, with his first publication in 1926 entitled "Amazing Stories." During this formative period he coined the first descriptive term for the new genre, - 'Scientifiction' - which eventually became - Science Fiction.
Later he followed up that initial publication success with "Wonder Stories" in 1929: Gernsback Publications, Incorporated was one of the few enterprises to survive the Depression. From there legions were launched and legends were born.
9-11 Need Not Have Happened
"Who would have expected terrorist to use airliners as guided missiles and crash them into buildings?"
This is a direct quote by Dr. Condoleeza Rice (White House National Security Advisor at the time), after the attacks of 9-11. Who could have expected such an attack, Dr. Rice? Well how about a CIA report sent to your very desk detailing just such a scenario, which conveniently, you claim never to have seen?
Who would have envisioned such an incredible conception of a terrorist attack, Dr. Rice? Well how about Science Fictioneers, which is every Science Fiction author and reader alive at the time you made that vacuous statement? In fact that scenario has been a frequently employed story line staple, in both Sci-Fi literature and film treatments; most of which detail the relative ease of execution of such a nefarious plan by both madmen and terrorists. Do you ever read speculative fiction or go to the movies, Dr. Rice? Terrorists do.
You see, Dr. Rice, terrorist and madmen are incredibly innovative because they have to be. They don't normally have easy accessibility to the tools of destruction afforded large nations with powerful armies. To pull off their evil deeds they have to think out of the box - 'OBT' so to speak and, as the saying goes, it takes one to know and beat one. Nations must make resourceful use of the technical minds they have available to them, with special emphasis on those who think - 'OBT'.
Futurist Visionaries and Eccentrics as a Resource
There are those who persistently pursue a single answer to all problems social and political. They perpetually seek the simple common denominator, mythical Holy Grail of answers, despite all evidence to the contrary that the complexity of these problems resist such simple solutions. Unfortunately, this is the mind-set of many at the helm of government as advisors (like Dr. Rice) or, in some cases, the actual seat of power. These people bureaucrats will almost always opt for the protection of political reputation rather than placing trust in others who think - OTB.
For seen from a protective political point of view, these special individuals are truly - 'individuals', and they have a marked tendency not to be - team players. But from time to time, various factions within government will invoke the concept of 'necessary evil' and, in absolute desperation, secure the services of non-conformist, 'eccentric visionaries.'
Such was the case during World War II, when the British government took a chance on a far out concept by Sir Barnes Neville Wallis (1887-1979) for - a 'bouncing bomb.' (Recommended historical film: "The Dam Busters - 1954")
The Germans were losing the war but, nevertheless, were able to field stiff resistance to more immediate defeat due to their hydroelectric dams in the Ruhr. Because of geographical positioning, standard-bombing attempts to destroy them proved fruitless. As they approached the targets, attacking planes would be shot down from the low altitude tight formations necessary to make direct bomb drops.
Sir Wallis' approach was to enable the dropping of the bombs well ahead of the targets, allowing the delivery planes greater protection from antiaircraft fire. His plan was to have cylindrical bombs bounce on the water to the intended target, gently impact with them, then roll down underwater to their base and explode by timed detonation.
After extensive laboratory trials, Operation Chastise was launched on May 16, 1943 and was a spectacular success. The strategic Ruhr dams were destroyed, thereby, severely restricting the German war effort.
This venture was not the first time the British had employed the services of eccentrics. Another operation during WWII was the Bletchley Park Project. Here a group of brilliant, non-conformist cryptologists became the most effective code breakers of the Allied war effort. (Reference the film: "Enigma" - 2001)
A prime example of the usage of the eccentric workforce in today's world is, without question, Lockheed Martin's "Skunk- Works" (formerly know as Lockheed Advanced Development Project Unit) started in the mid 1940's, when a dedicated group of 'OBT' engineers, starting from scratch, produced America's first operational jet fighter, the P-80 Shooting Star, in a remarkable 143 days.
Other amazing achievements of note include the U-2 Spy Plane, the stealth radar deflecting B-1 bomber and the novel ground hugging Cruise surface to surface missile, owe much of their success to this group of non-conformists 'OTB' thinkers.
An Astounding Editor of an Astounding Magazine
In the beginning there were Scientists and electronic hobbyists, who wrote technically oriented stories for the early Sci-Fi magazines. Most had truly unique ideas and genuine futurist visions, but little actual writing skill; and this shortfall was evident in the material they turned out. The stories were, for the most part, unintelligible to all but a small band of fellow enthusiasts. Then one day there arrived on the scene a man who would change Science Fiction forever - his name: John W. Campbell Jr.
Campbell attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where in his spare time he began writing Science Fiction at age 18, quickly selling his first stories to the pulp magazines. By the time he was 21, Campbell was a well-known pulp writer of what was then known as Super Science Fiction. However, when he failed German in his third year he was dismissed by MIT, and completed his final year at Duke University with a Bachelor of Silence in Physics.
In 1938 Street and Smith Publications hired Campbell as editor of Astounding Stories of Super Science. His immediately changed the magazine's name to Astounding Science Fiction, then just as swiftly set a new standard for writing excellence in Science Fiction publishing that, in time, would become gospel in the literary world of Sci-Fi.
He is also credited with being the father of 'hard Science Fiction' that dealt with more realistic characterizations than was previously allowed in the field. Up until his coming, most characters were written more to the square-jawed Flash Gordon or Buck Rogers standard: they had no personality flaws, were Caucasian, and had beautiful blond blue-eyed girlfriends. Against the wishes of his publishing bosses, Campbell began to sneak in 'real-time' characterizations to break the genre out of its perception in the literary world as nothing more than a form of grown-up comic books for adults.
Campbell also put together a stable of gifted writers whose works are revered as classics to this very day. They were the likes of Isaac Asimov, Arthur C. Clarke, Theodore Sturgeon, A.E. Van Vogt: all of whom would become 'Golden Age' of Sci-Fi legends (1938-1959) that is credited to Campbell.
Most notably however, Campbell's futuristically astute editorials covering not only technology's affect on society, but also espousing his viewpoints on social, diplomatic and political dilemmas, became renown and highly regarded outside of the Sci-Fi community. They soon began to spread to the pages of major publications such as The New Yorker Magazine and the New York Times. As the editor of an obscure off the beaten track pulp publication, Campbell was taken seriously. Some in publishing circles candidly referred to him, with great respect, as 'the little giant.'
In the mid 1960's Campbell once again changed the name of the magazine, this time to Analog Science Fiction and Fact. He remained editor of the award winning publication until his death in 1971.
A Telling Incident in 1944
If ever there was proof positive of the power of Science Fiction to mirror the future, one need go back no further than to an incident that took place in the Summer of 1944.
John W. Campbell Jr., then editor of Astounding Science Fiction Magazine, was about to publish a story by author Cleve Cartmill called "Dateline": The story described in great detail how to construct an atomic bomb. What made this incident special was that at exactly that moment in time, scientists in New Mexico were planning the first atomic bomb.
It was Campbell who roughed out the crude sketches that were requested by the magazine's printers to headline the cover of the issue that was to contain "Deadline", which upon publication made its way into the War Department where big-time panic ensued. The question was where did Campbell get such detailed data to publish an illustration and technical working description of an atomic bomb?
Fearing some kind of security leak, the War Department sent a Counter-Intelligence Corps agent to have a little chat with both Campbell and the story's author, Cleve Cartmill. Depending on whose version of the story you choose to believe, that interview was quite extensive and took from one to three days.
During the course of the interviews both Campbell and Cartmill denied having any inside data, and insisted that their fictional atom bomb was constructed within their own imaginations from data available to the public for more than 4-5 years. But the agent, named Riley, did not buy this explanation, and continued to believe both men were concealing their sources.
Riley's further investigations revealed that Campbell was friendly with Edgar Norton, an engineer doing classified work at Bell Labs in New York City. Although Norton had no involvement in any aspect of the A-bomb project himself, Bell Labs did. Riley suspected that because both men had lunch just previous to the magazine's publication, some classified data had passed between the two friends.
Norton readily admitted to having read "Deadline", and said that he'd told Campbell that it was "childish and utterly fantastic." "In any case," Norton said, "The technical details within the story had long been matters of common knowledge. And if Campbell or Cartmill had stumbled on anything that was actually the subject of current military research, it must have been purely by coincidence." However, Norton did reveal that there had been a third party at the lunch named Murray Leinster, who'd also written several Science Fiction stories for Campbell.
In 1942, Leinster published a story in Astounding entitled "Four Little Ships." The story detailed a fictional account of research concerning the disruption of enemy shipping via sound transmissions, which unbeknownst to him at the time, was an actual military project underway. In the story he too envisioned how a 'Uranium Bomb' would work based upon data readily available from technical journals. (Recommended film: "Fat Man and Little Boy" - 1989)
The process both men employed is called 'extrapolation'. By just the use of their technical knowledge and intelligently directed 'imagination', both men had been able to, literarily, predict future technical development. Needless to say, the government kept all involved in the incident under close scrutiny, to the extreme of employing their letter carriers as spies well into the 1950's.
An End to Avoid the End
As John E. Campbell Jr. strived to make clear, Science Fiction does not predict the future. What it does quite well is to envision the possibilities of 'various future models' based upon careful, well thought out empirical projections, employing detailed present day knowledge. And it should be made clear that these projections are not in any way limited to the technical arena. Social, environmental and international relations have also gained by their use of real-time simulations.
Upon reading the brilliant 1972 published work, "The Sheep Look Up", by British Sci-Fi author, John Brunner (1934-1995), one can easily fathom how accurately he envisioned things to come - politically, socially and environmentally; He envisioned the ominous rise of the mega-corporations to their virtual ownership of congress, and the evolving dictatorship of the pseudo science of Child Psychology over child rearing and education. Incredibly he even envisioned the coming of a vestigial American president, Prexy, who was no more than a tool of his vice president, who in turn was owned by the corporations.
Science Fiction Writers are 'Futurists' who have redefined imagination, into a functionally unique and legitimate literary form of increasing value to today's world. They are true 'Time Masters' who have honed the ability to visualize many future possibilities as though they were real and, upon doing so, offer up possibilities to avoid cataclysmic outcomes such as 9-11.
These Futurists maintain a tenacious hold on reality while, simultaneously, reaching out to establish a virtual familiarity with the unknown - The Future. They are an untapped resource that should be made use of. As America races toward an unknown and increasingly dangerous future, people in power like U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice and Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, would do well to consult with such 'OBT' thinkers before - boldly going where they've never been before - The Future. |