Does the Bush administration plan to attack Iran before leaving office? There is every indication that is exactly what they are planning to do as they head to the exit from their White House occupation. They came, they saw, they fouled up big-time and bloody, so why not exit through the kitchen and stir the soup on the way out? Who knows, luck might prevail and peace will break out - or not. If not, there's always - The Final Plan.
The Iraq Conflict: A War of Assumption
It is not a far stretch to state that the Iraq War was a war of assumption. To quote our Vice President, Dick Cheney, as to his prewar assessment of the end result of the invasion of a sovereign country that did not attack us: "We will most likely be greeted as liberators."
The weapons of mass destruction - none found. The hardheaded administration projection of a need for no more than 110,000 occupation troops has proved to be strategically wrong, and the initial estimate of sacked Chief of Staff of the United States Army, General Eric Shinseki, of a requirement of 360,000 to 400,00 ground troops has proved, in the end, to have been correct (as stated by CENTCOM Commander Gen. John Abizaid in testimony before Congress on November 15, 2006).
Added to which, U.S. military personnel were sent into battle without proper body protection and, in some cases, armament, which in response to the criticism former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld stated: "You go into battle with the army you have."
To wit, the projected cost of the war is out of control, heading midway through the billions and rapidly toward the trillion mark. The president has made a request for $50 billion more for the war effort, and a revised supplemental estimate indicates that the cost of the Iraq war now exceeds $3 billion a week. And the Pentagon recently stated that cost of the Iraq was has exceeded $320 billion (adding $78 billion for the Afghanistan War) - which does not include their projected estimates into 2008. So, in general, the war effort can best be described as "Mission Accomplished, but Still Going Strong and Badly."
In the face of ever increasing death tolls of Americans and Iraqis, they have tried every lie and act of deception in the book to rally American public support and world opinion behind their fallaciously founded and ill conceived deed: but nothing has worked for them for very long. Failure of achievement is the constant shadow that hangs over and follows every avenue of retreat they attempt to take. The 'cherry picking' of intelligence buttressed by a continual flow of lies is all that has been offered to the American public.
There never was an attempt by Iraq to buy Uranium (yellow cake) from Niger. Iraq had no connection or involvement with the 9 -11 incident. Saddam Hussein's government never had any sort of relationship with Osama Bin Laden and his al Qaeda terrorist group (Hussein did not tolerate competition).
In essence, just about every assessment the Bush administration has made previous to initiating this senseless 'war of choice' (including the mushroom cloud warning) has proved to be one hundred and eighty degrees wrong, and this bloody and cost consuming conflict with no end in sight has now been in progress longer that World War ll.
Therefore, what we are now witnessing is an administration nearing its end, and in the process of meticulous planning (a process they didn't employ before engaging in the invasion of Iraq) for what they hope to be a 'victorious' retreat from office. What they are constructing is a retreat behind a smoke screen of impact so significant, that if all goes well it will in their minds, hopefully, blind the world and the American voting public before the coming presidential election to the total folly of their time in office. The smoke screen will be the coming - Iran War.
The Players
To fully understand what is about to come about, one must not only know the political agenda of players involved, but the driving force behind their reasoning philosophy as well. The combination of the two factors equates to their Imperative.
Karl Rove, the acknowledged architect of the George W. Bush ascendancy would have us all believe that he is leaving the most volatile presidential administration in the history of this country, to go off into the sunset to give high paying speeches, write books and retire to a life of fishing. Keep in mind the politically combative nature of this man and what he has advocated - even before the Bush White House.
This man proudly and openly dedicated himself to setting up a Republican dictatorship within the American Constitutional State. Does anyone really believe that he will now quietly accept the defeat of his lifelong dream, simply because the Bush presidency is about to go down in flames? Absolutely not! He is going out into the field to set up, hopefully, the second coming of the extreme Right - after a victory in the new Iran adventure.
Dick Cheney, corporate America's elected president, the ventriloquist behind the scenes that crafted, along with Karl Rove's scripting, the voice of President George W. Bush, the most destructive and costly ventriloquist dummy in history. Cheney owes his corporate clientele for that which he didn't manage to deliver, namely the oil fields of Iraq. And at present he is, on record, openly campaigning for - some sort of military action - against Iran.
Ari Fleisher, the highly regarded and skillful Bush administration's former press secretary, after stepping down from his position, has joined an ardent pro Bush propaganda group know as Freedom's Watch. He will be the one orchestrating the political atmosphere for this new Karl Rove/Dick Cheney inspired cabal.
President George W. Bush, the elected leader of the most powerful nation ever on earth, who allowed his offices to be used by this cabal, and who is driven by a rabid 'born again Christian' zeal and, most of all, a desperate need to leave a legacy in his wake. In his simpleminded way, he regards the concept of American style Democracy as the forward staff of a new Christian Crusade. In fact, it is the legacy he wants to leave behind.
These forces can pull off nothing without him other than executing a coup, but that appears to be a concern they need not entertain at present. For George W. Bush wants to attack Iran. In fact, he's chomping at the bit.
The Iran Imperative
The Iraq War was initially not about Weapons of Mass Destruction, but primarily about oil - namely the Iraqi Oil Reserve, the second known largest reserve of prime crude in the world.
The Iran War will be about the Bush administration's last-ditch attempt to cover their accumulated (and many say criminal) blunders and failures in the management of the Iraq War. What boggles the mind, however, is why it appears they are not quite able to comprehend that the Iranians, knowing what has to be coming their way in the not too distant future, are also capable of thinking and planning. And there can be no doubt they are indeed planning, for they know they will have to absorb the first blows of the coming conflict. The two big questions, however, is how will the resourceful Iranians retaliate and, most importantly, how will the region react?
An Insane American Foreign Policy = Endless Regional Nightmare Possibilities
There are so many interacting events taking place in the Middle East at present, one is severely challenged to make projections or even offer theories as to future events, when even the participants do not know what will happen in the end. However, based upon known factors, one can outline viewpoints - all exacerbated by an insane American foreign policy philosophy - that may shape the actions of all of those involved:
First of critical consideration is a very real threat by the Turkish government to invade the Kurdish populated territory of northern Iraq, should there be any attempt by the Kurds to form a separate state. Since that is exactly what the Kurds claim they are working towards, this is not a threat to be taken lightly.
Even before George W. Bush's presidency, we insisted upon a nuclear free Middle East, and insisted upon negotiation with the Arab world to achieve this status - without inclusion of the Israelis in the edict. Meanwhile, without ever publicly admitting such activities, the Israelis proceeded to develop a massive nuclear arsenal - in the Middle East.
We've failed to recognize until recently, that the feared Islamic Nuclear Bomb was already a reality in Pakistan. That nation is a now highly unstable country, growing more unstable every day, and in possession of an extensive nuclear arsenal with very sophisticated missile delivery systems. But as a Pakistani American associate recently pointed out to me, "Shouldn't the Arab world fear a Christian Nuclear Bomb? His point is well taken. How can we define who in the world can and can't have nuclear weapons?
As a precept to war, we accuse the Iranians of supplying Iraqi insurgents with the weapons and explosive devices used to kill our troops. But is this a true and valid justification for attacking Iran? Think about it in the light of our own history.
We supplied groups we referred to as Afghanistan Freedom Fighters (led by Osama Bin laden) with weapons and Stinger ground to air missiles to fight the Russians during their occupation of Afghanistan. But the Russians didn't attack us in return. And we supplied Saddam Hussein with the chemicals and weapons to go to war with Iran. But the Iranians didn't attack us in return - at least not at the time.
In point of fact, America has a long history of supplying the enemies of our enemies with weapons, training and funding, going back as far as the turn of the 20th century. So why do we find it so difficult to understand that a country right next door to one we have invaded and now occupy, and a people we in the not too distant past incited to attack them, and which is culturally and historically attached to said country, should want to aid those insurgents?
Of course, as an American, I don't want American soldiers killed by anyone anywhere, but we have the final option to stop the slaughter of American forces by simply doing what the British did in Palestine, the Russians in Afghanistan, and the French in Vietnam - get out!
The Plan
"If you kill me in battle, I forgive you. But if I survive ...we'll see."
From an Old Spanish proverb
The Attack on Iran plan is simple and straightforward, for there are few other options available to the U.S. A massive ground assault, or tactically best a series of such assaults, is virtually written out of the scenario since we don't have the available troop strength to pull it off, or consider even a limited occupation for mop up purposes afterwards.
Therefore, the only realistic option is a two pronged air and sea assault on strategic Iranian target. Through continuous airborne bomber attacks over a period of at least 10 days, backed up by heavy navel carrier cruise missile assaults from our fleet in the Persian Gulf. Can such a plan work? Absolutely! The big question, however, is what comes afterward?
The Nuclear Factor
No matter how skillfully executed an air assault program, is it really possible to make massive strikes on operational nuclear facilities without the release and spreading of deadly radiation? Most military nuclear experts say no, and the extent of the damage is left to - which way the wind blows and how close the sites are to population centers.
Think about Chernobyl, and Three Mile Island, always keeping in mind that these were 'accidental' releases of radioactive contamination - not the result of direct airborne missile assaults.
Should air assaults on Iranian nuclear facilities cause the release of significant radiation, the image of Iranian men, women and children dying in the streets from radiation poisoning will, effectively, destroy American diplomatic influence in the region and the world for decades upon decades to come.
The Unknown Israeli Factor
Into this equation of guaranteed chaotic outcome there is the always present and unknown peril of the Israeli Factor. For no matter how desperate a situation develops, it can always be made far worse by the addition of the right catalyst - and this factor is what the Israelis represent in such a situation. What will they try to do on their own during the melee, which may appear to them as an opportunity not to be missed to erase a mounting threat? And what if the Bush administration is so foolish as to incorporate them, in any way, in a joint operational military attack on Iran?
What makes the Israeli factor so critical in these coming events is that the Israelis have a major threat to contend with. They don't worry so much about an Iranian nuclear attack upon them, as they do of the loss of being the strongest military power in the region. A nuclear-armed Iran becomes a serious contender, almost an equal, because they would become resistant to conventional attack. The Israelis would be reduced or somewhat limited to a defensive posture only, and virtually cutoff from the option of preemption. That precarious status the Israelis cannot tolerate becoming a reality.
Normally, this question would be moderated by the application of 'cool heads' within the government of Israel, were it not for the very real possibility that one, Benjamin Netanyahu, a former Israeli Prime Minister and well known war hawk supreme may soon come into power once again. When it comes to Israel's perceived survivability, this man will listen to no reasoning other than his own.
The Iranian Options for Retaliation
So how could the Iranians retaliate against an American military attack? They have at their beck and call many options even after a massive air strike, one of which is to target U.S. troop positions in Iraq with short-range missiles; and you can bet they're thinking about it. But most important, they have the trained dedicated force to carry out such retaliation. They are called The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards were established during the 1979Iranian revolution, and have evolved into a powerful and influential organization. It is widely held by most intelligence organizations that they have custody over most, or possibly, all of Iran's chemical, biological and radiological weapons; as says Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in a report to be published in late September.
The force has some 125,000 men (a paramilitary entity separate in number from the regular Iranian military) which has exported thousands of rockets to Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and shipped tons of arms to various Palestinian groups, including the Palestinian Authority as reported by Cordesman in "Iran's Military Forces and Warfighting Capabilities."
Reportedly, some 5000 of the group are assigned to 'unconventional warfare' missions as well as special Quads, or Jerusalem, forces for operations overseas. They support the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza and on the West Bank and Shiites in Iraq and Afghanistan, reports Cordesman a former director of intelligence assessments at the Pentagon. However, rumored links to al Qaeda and other Sunni groups have not been "convincingly confirmed," he said.
This group is so worrisome to the Bush administration that they're doing their level best to have them declared a foreign terrorist organization, and there is good reason on their part for doing so. If the Islamic Revolutionary Guards are so declared, the United States could freeze U.S. based assets of companies connected to them. The listing would also give the U.S. the clout to pressure foreign companies into suspending business with firms or organizations linked to the guards or risk the costly affect of being viewed as terrorist supporters.
"We are confronting Iranian behavior across a variety of different fronts, on a number of different, quote-unquote, 'battlefields', if you will," State Department spokesman Sean McCormick said recently. His reference to "battlefields" attracted notice.
While some guards units are trained for covert missions, most are lightly equipped infantry trained for internal security missions, Cordesman said. They are the center of Iran's efforts to develop warfare tactics in case of a U.S. invasion, and could be contemplating sending units into countries like Iraq and Afghanistan to attack U.S. forces, he said.
"There are other paramilitary, internal security and intelligence forces in Iran, and leadership is fragmented," Cordesman said, "but the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps holds control of several of them."
At present, Iran's missile defense, distributed strategically over the Iranian countryside, will be almost impossible to completely eliminate in a series of air assaults, no matter how accurate our supposedly pinpoint attack technology may be. More than enough will survive to do serious damage to a nearby enemy if the forces capable of operating them survive the initial assault - namely the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
This problem has been well researched, because the same formidable obstacles to effectively eliminating widespread missile deployment have confounded our military planners when considering future preemptive options concerning North Korea.
In the Final Analysis - What?
If there is a critical reality we Americans must come to grips with as a result of the Iraq conflict, whatever the final outcome, it is the erroneous notion that we can transplant American Style Democracy 'anywhere in the world' we chose to. That piece of earned wisdom must be the greatest lesson we achieve from the tragic consequences of this 'war of choice.'
What lessons will we come away with from a war with Iran? Only a troubling future will reveal such lessons, unfortunately, as always too late and at what cost? However you look at it, to clear thinking minds free of political contamination, it is a war we just don't need but, unfortunately, I think it's one we're going to get. |